Gold Market, Premium with Silver etc.

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    • Gold Market, Premium with Silver etc.

      I feel this topic has not been discussed enough. I think I know the reason why. The players who understand how the gold market works and profit from it keep it to theirselves and the people who do not understand, well... they just don't care?

      I must admit I do not understand all this as well as I probably should by now so instead of writing what I understand I play stupid and ask this as a set of questions :D

      I hope both Players and Devs explain it to me like I was a ten year old (I wish) ;)

      1) Is it true that us players ultimately decide the price of gold? If people think it is worth it to pay 500+ silver per gold that will be the market price? There is no regulation?

      2) Is there any safety mechanism from a small group of players taking over the gold market and monopolising the gold value?

      This needs more explanation. I see people selling 12.000+ gold at a time and buying 10.000+ worth of gold at the same time at a small margin. These guys are not your average grinders buying gold to get premium or what ever. This is playing gold market for profit. I must admit I joined in it for week or two just to see if it works. It is quite profitable.

      Lets assume that after release there will be 10-30 players whose main purpose will be playing the gold market. They buy as much gold as they can in the first 2 weeks when the price is relatively low and once they feel they have enough to start playing with it they start to manipulate the market. Selling high when there is not much competition. Buying low when the need for silver is highest (land auction for example). So year after release these guys will have gathered a fair sum in gold. I would say tens of millions in gold might not be far fetched...?

      3) The gold market guys will know each other after a while. What if they start co-operating and monopolising the value of gold?

      With their millions of gold combined they can decide the market price at any time. Remember they are always selling at slightly higher price and buying so they would not lose much if anything. They could even decide to lower the price from 600 where it is now to 100 silver per gold for longer duration of time if they really wish. Selling and buying masses. Sure they would take a hit but think of the benefits. They could temporarily set the Premium price bought by silver to ultimate low? They could be like Robin Hoods of the playerbase and make lots of friends :D

      Or Lets say one of them decides to quit Albion. He starts selling his gold at crazy cheap 1000 gold at a time. Giving it away to his friends and so on. Collapsing the market value briefly. It is game after all and selling the gold for money would get the buyer in trouble.

      4) What would be a healthy gold value for a healthy playerbase?

      This is the most important question. What would be in your opinion a healthy price for gold? So that active players in the community can keep their premium without paying too much? *cough*nothing*cough* assuming the silver drop rate will be the same it is now.


      5) Am I delusional and there is no worries? After all, the Wallstreet has proved that these things just work, right? :whistling: :rolleyes:



      Occupy GoldMarket!!! :evil: :saint:
      IGN : Ravenar

      Dieser Beitrag wurde bereits 1 mal editiert, zuletzt von Ravenar () aus folgendem Grund: typos

    • The example I tried to make was that people who play the market with gold (traded with silver) have minimal real life investment in the game but enjoy the economics part of the game more than the PvP could in theory control the gold market and set the gold value at any time. Please correct me if I am wrong.



      (Note, the right image was meant to be 365 days after release)


      On the left is the price now. What I did for couple of weeks was make a gold purchase order and sell order. For example at this point I might make Buy order for 532 if I want to be quick and a Sell order for 540. If I would want to make more profit or the competing orders would be smaller in quantity I could do 525/545 but it might mean I make no profit for a day. See where this is going?


      If I would do this every day and correctly predict the times when gold values will be low (land auction) and high (probably few weeks before land auction) I will make pretty nice profit. Probably about 100k silver per day on a busy market day with all my founder gold only.


      The picture on the right


      I cannot say this is a prediction, but it is scenario, again correct me if I am wrong. If gold-dude had a 10.000.000 account of gold and about same in silver he could very easily do something like this. If someone makes a lower gold sale order, they just buy them off as soon as possible (bot would be risky but more reliable) Of course they can adjust the price down if competition gets hot.


      The point I am trying to make I guess, is that if couple of guys will hoard enough gold they might control the gold market not SI or people buying gold with real money. There is no real competition controlling the gold value, just monopoly.


      Right?
      IGN : Ravenar
    • Quote "They buy as much gold as they can in the first 2 weeks"

      The assumption that gold traders only buy gold during the first 2 weeks to really start trading later on is probably wrong, because the trading margin will never be as high as during the first 2-3 days after launch.

      Lets say these are the buy and sell orders for gold at day 2 after launch: sell5 buy4
      So you can place a buy order for 4 and sell orders for 5 silver. That is 25% return on investment. You can do this multiple times a day depending on trading volumes, but those are so high during the first few days.

      Lets say somebody is 100 silver short and is frustrated he will simply drop 25 gold on the market for 4 silver and is happy that he doesnt have to run another dungeon before he can get the new gear. He just gave you 25 silver for your services, or 25% return on investment, because another guy is buying the gold while he is running a dungeon, he doesn't know how to make a buy order, so he just buys gold for 5 each (or doesn't have time to make a buy order).

      During the second day ( i have epic founders pack) i went from 4500 gold to 12k gold doing this. Just placing buy and sell orders. And that while gold was going up from 4 silver to 20 during that day. I invested all of the silver i earned by playing into my farm getting mounts up early is also pretty nice:).

      I know for sure that a trading guild (lets call it the iron bank to fit the game of thrones theme) could manipulate a lot in this game, not only the market prices of gold, but maybe also lending money to guilds (with colleteral ofcourse), or selling a very large amount of gear to a guild, and because of that manipulate the outcome of a war as well.

      In my opinion the goldprice moving so quickly is destroying the profitability of selling normal goods on the auction house. The reasoning behind this is: why not sell everything asap and buy gold instead. So everybody starts dumping their possesions and driving the silver prices of goods down, while driving the gold price up.

      Dieser Beitrag wurde bereits 1 mal editiert, zuletzt von Bajoli ()

    • OneTyper schrieb:

      Ravenar schrieb:

      It would be kinda cool if a game premium currency would become a cryptocurrency. Like spend your gold on amazon or something... 8o

      or has it been done already?
      no, cannot be done, the business model and the way the currency is generated should be radically different to allow that
      Plus the tax implications of international exchange and differing laws for each country/region/state. What a nightmare.
    • simple guide to be filthy rich using your friends or guild. easy step by step Break the Market Methods.


      STEPS:

      1. Sell Gold for Silver and Buy as many Islands as you can

      2. Gather Your friends with multiple accounts and Ults to be full ready with farms

      3. Half your friends Make farms Other Half does Pastures.

      4. As farms and pastures are low maintenance at low tiers half you and ur friends skin animals other half gathers stones wood

      5. gather 50 thousand of each at start. only gather tier 1 and tier 2 stone.

      6. by this time its day 2 should have enough food to start feeding for mounts

      7. start feeding all your pastures

      8. make sure all your leather is refined for Saddling your mounts

      9. Saddle up your mounts and put for sale on all auction houses.

      10. make sure you make some oxes to travel with mounts.

      11. Take the silver you make from selling mounts and remember there will be a lot of silver

      12. make a list of how many mounts you have in each town for less confusion on where stuff is

      13. Take the silver and buy Buy Gold when its low. you will have tons of gold

      14. Buy premium for all your ults now and the ults and islands for all you members

      15. repeat this for a few weeks. make mounts sell invest silver and gold and

      16. make sure you take half your silver and leave it on a account that will buy and sell gold when its up and down with some one trust worthy watching it and holding it.

      17. at this time you will have around 50 to 100 million silver and you and your friends can now start your journey together filthy rich.

      the first 2 6 weeks in this game doesn't matter so as long as you and your guild compromise and stick with the plan you will be one of the strongest guilds financially.

      @Korn plz tell me how this isn't broken and how ults doesn't ruin the game


      my suggestion to the gold market is to not be open for the first 30 days of the live server release. be at a minimum of 30 silver per gold at start to avoid problems in the economy.
    • Gold manipulation isn't as easy as one would think in higher numbers. Small numbers sure.

      At the start it would seem great. However keep in mind there is a fee per listing.

      If a player lets say drops 200,000 gold into the market as a sell order, there is a huge fee for that, then the wait tine of undercuts for the gold sold. By the time the gold sells the new norm price wise will be over what he sold and can buy back for. Reason I say this is the player is working against the natural flow of inflation in high numbers while others are also working on manipulation as well.
      http://i68.tinypic.com/2guwopw.png
    • Illidan schrieb:

      If someone were to attempt to crash the gold market it would only last a few minutes at best even with a million gold.
      I was not only talking about crashing the market, but controlling the value and making steady profit while doing it.

      Only SDI knows the volume there is gold market going on at any time. I believe million gold is enough to satisfy the market for several days if not weeks in current phase of beta at least.
      IGN : Ravenar
    • I think that gold market manipulation isn't viable. Just normal margin trading however is.

      The gold price is like a bal floating on the water. If the water rises the bal will go up with it. Somebody can try to push the bal down in the water (trying to lower the goldprice), but the bal will get back up a short wile after that.

      The goldprice will keep rising because of the fundamentals:
      -Gold is the only thing that can not be gathered or created (unless spending real money).
      -Gold is the only thing that represents real life value (buying premium).
      -Goldprice is dependent on the amount of silver in the game per player, which should go up over time.

      So how expensive should gold become?

      1.Farming is risk free. Less and less people will keep gathering their farm products every day, because other action based activities are more fun, which gives decent market prices for farming goods.
      2. If you get 5 plots of 9 you will farm +-400 resources per day worth 300 silver each (300 for t8 farming resources is quite normal and can even be higher than 300) for a total of 120k silver per day.
      3. 120*30= 3,6 million silver per month.
      4. Each month you need a premium for 2500 gold
      5. 3,6million/2500=goldprice= 1440 silver

      As you can see it is very easy to see a goldprice of ~1440 in the future, which can be considered a stable goldprice, because of the risk free income.

      Now lets say somebody wants to buy premium for multiple months in advance. For example buying 12 months for 19000 in that case you pay less then 2000 gold per month. But as you can see in that case the goldprice would be even higher: 3,6million/2000 = 1800.

      So it is safe to say that the goldprice will get between 1440 and 1800 before it starts going sideways. And even then the supply of gold will keep going down over time, pushing up the goldprice even further because of basic market forces of supply and demand.

      To say that there is a high goldprice because of speculation or manipulation is a bit of nonsense. That doesn't mean that a guild can't push up the goldprice by a few percent. For instance if a guild would buy 200k gold on the current market, the price would go up by 14 silver to 953 instead of 939 (=+1,5% and 190million in silver cost). To push the market down by selling 200k gold, would give a 2% loss in silver price, losing money for the seller...
    • I think gold is actually very susceptible to manipulation, much in the same way that we saw in the months after release... the volumes are now very small compared to before and since many gold traders use multiple accounts to stack their orders, what you are seeing is not indicative of healthy market...

      furthermore, gold is definitely not as scarce as some people think... for example I know many people who would rather pull out their credit cards than to spend one minute in a full-loot zone either for fame grinding or gathering...

      gold also has too few uses to justify large price rises without an external factor... this recent uptrend from 750 to 950 is because the developers moved the global discount cap from 1000 to 1500, to let new players have cheaper repairs and island costs... this is an artificial change to demand and does not represent real demand, otherwise we'd have reached 1000 long before now...

      in the short-term gold could easily real 1100-200 based on the price movement alone, most of my friends list are talking about gold so this would not surprise me at all...

      but in the long-term, I think gold will settle at the new equilibrium price of 1000 (25% discount) just as it did before the changes, when it stayed for months at 750...

      actually since the number 1000 is a psychological barrier, I think 950-990 is more reasonable...
      Bank of Albion
      Investments & Third-Party Services
      Contact me via the Forums or Discord: Saya#4434

      Dieser Beitrag wurde bereits 2 mal editiert, zuletzt von Saya ()

    • Saya schrieb:

      I think gold will settle at the new equilibrium price of 1000 (25% discount) just as it did before the changes, when it stayed for months at 750...

      actually since the number 1000 is a psychological barrier, I think 950-990 is more reasonable...
      I think the price will edge under 1000 for awhile before breaking thru and long term holding around 1000-1100.

      Who's taking bets?