Gold Market, Premium with Silver etc.

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  • F20 wrote:

    Saya wrote:

    I think gold will settle at the new equilibrium price of 1000 (25% discount) just as it did before the changes, when it stayed for months at 750...

    actually since the number 1000 is a psychological barrier, I think 950-990 is more reasonable...
    I think the price will edge under 1000 for awhile before breaking thru and long term holding around 1000-1100.
    Who's taking bets?
    I am not interested in betting on who is right or wrong, just in the healthy discussion with the goal of furthering experience and knowledge...

    nobody can predict the future so you could be right on this xD

    Piddle wrote:

    When someone renews premium with silver, are people trading silver for premium, or does the system convert the silver into gold through the market and then buy premium with the gold? It has never been clear to me.
    their silver is exchanged for gold, that gold is used to obtain premium where it is removed from the game...

    the original silver stays in the game...
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    The post was edited 3 times, last by Saya ().

  • Saya wrote:

    gold also has too few uses to justify large price rises without an external factor... this recent uptrend from 750 to 950 is because the developers moved the global discount cap from 1000 to 1500, to let new players have cheaper repairs and island costs... this is an artificial change to demand and does not represent real demand, otherwise we'd have reached 1000 long before now...
    This "co-incidential" timing of rapid value change from 750 to 950 and the new global discount cap is exactly what made me think that this was player manipulation, not caused by market supply and demand of gold.

    I expected that when I first read the post about the new discount cap. I was not sure it would happen, but it really did.
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  • I don't know enough about the supply side on gold. I don't hold gold. I don't buy gold for RL currency. I just click the button that turns silver into premium. If there are enough people like me out there, then gold just has to keep going up. There isn't any need for anyone to manipulate anything. Every month, or whatever, I have to buy my 2500 gold. If that 2500 gold doesn't get reintroduced to the market somehow, then the price of gold does up. So, someone, somewhere, has to generate about $12.50 cents worth of gold for each person like me, otherwise gold goes up?

    How many trial keys are being generated? That has to be pushing the price up to, if they work like paying for premium does. If they do, they probably shouldn't. It seems terrible to have the mechanic that draws new players in, drive inflation on the current players. I don't know really know enough about how any of that works though, either.
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  • Trial keys are probably predominantly paid from Silver as a speculation vehicle. It is unlikely its being done with real currency in a significant manner.

    Ravenar it's definitely not market manipulation rather simply server population influx from steam and the first month of premium being due in 4-6 days from that.

    I started at steam launch and immediately started buy gold all the way through 800. You will certainly have a LARGE spike from the steam users paying for premium with silver starting in the next couple days, however it will be a one time spike. It probably hasn't reached peak either, but you know what they say about pigs in markets? If I were betting on the market, the long term price will probably peak this month and then decrease for a fairly long period of time until server populations become low.

    Sell your gold now, buy later!

  • I started buying gold at < 10s and haven't stopped yet. I don't buy much now, I just spend the little bit of silver alts make to buy gold and it's enough.

    Premium Purchases:
    6 months on 2 alts
    1 year on main when his 90 days ran out.
    1 year on the 2 alts when their 6 months ran out
    1 year on 3rd alt from 2nd account

    So far gold has been higher every time I've purchased Premium. So, spending the silver at lower prices was good.
  • So one thing left unmentioned for the larger crowd: There was an issue of high profile players investing large amounts of silver, trying to take advantage of the Global Discount that was lowered for the Steam users. I leave the details away as my source is the RT and I do not want to get banned. But personally I feel the larger population outside cartel and RT needs to know what has happened.

    They invested huge amounts of silver expecting global discount to be returned to normal. It was NOT returned to normal so they, with assist of cartel are now manipulating market so that they can wait for the global prices to go up so that they can sell the goods that they have stockpiled with profit instead of taking loss.

    Every one who can should start trading gold. Do it with margin sales, you do not need to take a loss. Keep the margins low and always try to bring the prices down if you can. It was done before once in the Beta. Playerbase was much smaller back then but It can be done.

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  • Ravenar wrote:

    I leave the details away as my source is the RT and I do not want to get banned. But personally I feel the larger population outside cartel and RT needs to know what has happened.
    So the RT members DO have advantages over normal players after all? (They would have known what was going to happen, they could have anticipated) What a surprise...

    The post was edited 1 time, last by Lardeur ().

  • 13k gold is not that much for some players....
    i remember times where i played active pvp and i made about 300k gold in 3-4 weeks.
    13k gold is viable for nearly everyone, even for a gatherboy.
    gold regulates by itself. if sum1 monopolize it he has to hold this price up AND he has to buy gold from other players. the income of gold will be higher when the price is up because its more worth to buy gold and trade it for silver. monopolizing guys will end up broke at the end....
  • Lardeur wrote:

    Ravenar wrote:

    I leave the details away as my source is the RT and I do not want to get banned. But personally I feel the larger population outside cartel and RT needs to know what has happened.
    So the RT members DO have advantages over normal players after all? (They would have known what was going to happen, they could have anticipated) What a surprise...
    If by advantage you mean that we see issues brought up by others then I suppose. Much of the stuff I wrote was my speculation. The detail found in RT was that some people were trying to take advantage of the global discount by buying and transmuting T8.2 to T8.3 using the global discount and sitting on it until discount was gone and selling it with a profit (if I remember correctly).

    But the point I was trying to make is that cartel may have a lot of gold. But they still probably have much less than the rest of the community combined. They can be hurt.

    Do what ever you want with this information.

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    The post was edited 1 time, last by Ravenar ().

  • The increase in the price of gold does not create more silver in the game. Think about it next time, when you think that you received a silver income.

    In fact, you take this silver from someone else. Because the game has not been added new silver just because you created the demand for gold.

    The gold rate is an indicator of your belief in it, and not the ratio of gold and silver in the game.

    The post was edited 1 time, last by Clu ().

  • Lets say I had 2000 gold and 1,5 mill this morning. Rotating buy/sell orders a couple of times I now 2100 gold and 1,5 mill. Btw dropping gold average briefly to 914


    You seem to imply that I believe my employer generates euros to pay my salary.

    If you want to comment, comment on things actually said not your first impression of what might be implied.

    edit: Yes, the silver is taken from the people who do not use buy orders and convert silver to gold with market price. Unfortunately those suckers are needed to make it possible to do margin trades. You don't need to be one of them. Join and fight the Cartel.

    I got tired. I shared the info even risking my RT status. If you do not think it is viable, leave it and move on.

    Have Fun!!

    edit2: Gold value down to 907. Keep on trading, keep the trend going... Do not let it bounce back this time...
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    The post was edited 2 times, last by Ravenar ().

  • Ravenar wrote:

    Join and fight the Cartel.
    The cartel ignores gold and uses only silver. Or are we talking about different cartels?

    If you are talking about the course of gold, then you too are with them in the cartel. The fact is that in order to destroy their business, you need to keep the gold in a very stable state. Any change in gold (up or down) can be profitable.

    The post was edited 1 time, last by Clu ().

  • @Clu, I have zero information of any cartel. I believe there is a discord channel where city plot owners do Plot-Pvp or what ever. It might very well be different cartel of people who heavily invested in T8.3 mats ... Or I might be just wasting time. In any case, there was not enough supply/demand reasons for the fast rise of gold price. It was and still is manipulated by a group of rich players.

    If you read Saya's post and then my post from this morning and think about what Global Discount means, you might understand what I am talking about. I seem to lack the communication skills to get through to you...
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    The post was edited 1 time, last by Ravenar ().

  • Ravenar wrote:

    1) Is it true that us players ultimately decide the price of gold? If people think it is worth it to pay 500+ silver per gold that will be the market price? There is no regulation?
    You are a game company, you create a gold price = a silver to gold ratio. This is also your business income. You are able to create gold on demand and insert it into the game. You now have to keep a sharp eye on employees, so that they do not leak information, when the market will get pumped up.

    In my opinion, SI regulates the market in the end. Even if its just marginal and very rarely done. We had a thead about it last year, that was left open and died out due to bashing and toxic behaviour (like most of the time).

    Rule of thumb: If its linked to income, it will be regulated.
  • @clue Your information "The gold rate is an indicator of your belief in it, and not the ratio of gold and silver in the game." is completely inaccurate for how a market works. Gold isn't like real life here where it is only used for jewellery and semi conductors, so demand is primarily an artificial 'hedge' based on perception of safety.

    The gold rate in this game is an indicator in the number of players buying gold to pay for cosmetics and premium (I would posit primarily premium) with extra to sell versus those who want to spend no RL money on the game and are forced to use Silver.

    This creates a very REAL and tangible link between the price of gold and the price of silver, as gold (RL purchase) is more likely to be used to create premium as silver ratio gets higher. Conversely it is less likely to be used as active users become incredibly wealthy from creating silver or there are less active player bases or shifts in players satisfaction with the gaming company (and their willingness to support it financially).

    There is likely to always be greater demand for gold in this game, as the ease of producing silver versus the cost of gold probably lends itself to trying to pay for premium via silver accumulation. The long term trend will point upwards, with steam launch being a temporary spike before it falls back down for a while, and then continues it's march upwards.

    @Ravenar Generally a liquid market with larger trading is what removes the ability for people to manipulate price swings, and reduces the spread you gave as an example. More people trading would actually be the solution not less, as there will always be some trading and thin volume is ALWAYS the easiest to manipulate.

    The post was edited 2 times, last by Scipianas ().

  • @Scipianas , I agree, that is why I try to promote everyone who possibly can, to take more active part in the gold market using Buy and Sell orders. Converting using market price is sucker money for the rest of us. It seems to always play in favor of the manipulators. The margins are huge. More traders will close the margin and reduce the volatility.
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